Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.478746 2.640530 2.812720 3.010527 3.232620 3.475632 3.763506
2025-05-25 2.226681 2.443549 2.686452 2.981725 3.335255 3.750718 4.284962
2025-06-01 2.063061 2.308278 2.592396 2.951485 3.401713 3.960011 4.726346
2025-06-08 1.955807 2.222157 2.539273 2.953164 3.492900 4.194754 5.218238
2025-06-15 1.883927 2.169350 2.517423 2.985091 3.617586 4.478421 5.812343
2025-06-22 1.789076 2.079950 2.440862 2.936232 3.624818 4.595685 6.175654
2025-06-29 1.704650 1.997669 2.366560 2.882159 3.616113 4.683933 6.501750
2025-07-06 1.624089 1.915527 2.286766 2.813433 3.578142 4.720802 6.744415
2025-07-13 1.593082 1.895329 2.286540 2.853040 3.698727 5.011676 7.477374
2025-07-20 1.569019 1.882408 2.294394 2.903180 3.837751 5.347335 8.368109
2025-07-27 1.547674 1.871577 2.303736 2.954952 3.982590 5.710557 9.409661
2025-08-03 1.504941 1.829703 2.267402 2.935933 4.011480 5.873000 10.064738
2025-08-10 1.463724 1.788962 2.231669 2.916965 4.041125 6.045331 10.808231
2025-08-17 1.422522 1.746657 2.191742 2.888998 4.053041 6.185852 11.522607
2025-08-24 1.384001 1.706557 2.153048 2.860286 4.060589 6.317986 12.262454
2025-08-31 1.356814 1.681233 2.134517 2.861880 4.120684 6.564111 13.426616
2025-09-07 1.339369 1.668877 2.134212 2.892175 4.234320 6.940313 15.185531
2025-09-14 1.302248 1.627184 2.088548 2.845808 4.202666 6.993632 15.888692
2025-09-21 1.265812 1.585419 2.041304 2.794462 4.157768 7.011310 16.480265
2025-09-28 1.227534 1.540003 1.987123 2.729155 4.081910 6.948464 16.742681
2025-10-05 1.217609 1.535265 1.994272 2.766798 4.206849 7.380561 19.333486
2025-10-12 1.210574 1.534382 2.007060 2.814427 4.355668 7.902286 22.895879
2025-10-19 1.204080 1.533984 2.020413 2.863577 4.512430 8.481770 27.627107